Do we really need cows?

I don’t eat much meat these days, not out of any moral objection, but mainly for health reasons. I also prefer food of better quality and good quality meat costs. If I had no choice of meat but for the water-injected mass-market dross that emerges from supermarket shelves, then I might even object to meat on ethical grounds but it would have to be really bad.

This got me thinking. What kind of price pressure would it take for someone to start developing a real meat substitute. Not quorn, or soya but real, laboratory-grown meat. Imagine if we could cultivate artificial pigeon breasts, lamb shanks or fillet steak. You could specify the quality in terms of how long it had been ‘hung’. There would be no cruelty, no environmental damage, even the medical effects could be minimal by, for example, controlling for fat content or making red meat such that we digest it better. The third world could have a cheaper and better source of protein. We might even make strides in the global warming battle by reducing the amount of methane in the air.

This stuff wouldn’t be ‘meat’ in the sense that it actually came from an animal, or was even harvested from an animal, but would be a purely artificial construct. It would be a bit like the artifical Kryptonite created by Richard Pryor in Superman 3, except it wouldn’t give you evil tendencies.
The obvious downside is that we’d have no need to keep cows, chickens or sheep and so they might go extinct. However, we could keep a few in zoos, and presumably it might be useful to keep some in captivity for various reasons.

So the question is, would the benefits described above be worth the costs of near extinction of several species? I’m ignoring the loss of employment in the farming industry and will take it as given that this is made up for in the new artificial meat sector.

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Will selling legal ivory reduce poaching?

Tom Palmer has a paper on popular market myths (HT: Tyler Cowen) and towards the end sounds a little caution about eulogising over markets too much. I thought about that paper when I read Tim Worstall’s post on elephant poaching.

Tim suggests that decriminalising the ivory trade would lower ivory prices and thus reduce the incentives to poaching elephants. The analysis seems elegant. However there’s a flaw in the argument neatly illustrating that unintended consequences aren’t restricted to government interference in market outcomes.

Why wouldn’t the increased supply of ivory depress prices making poaching unattractive? Well the price would surely decrease but whether this acts as a significant disincentive depends on additional factors. 

Firstly, if you’re a farmer facing a lost livelihood because of a marauding elephant, then you don’t really need much of an incentive to continue poaching, because you’re alternative income is pretty bleak. This probably applies whatever your next best alternative to poaching. In short, the price drop from the increased supply of ivory would have to be really big to stop poaching. 

Secondly, poachers may be able to infiltrate the legal trade route and generally face lower costs. So even with falling prices, the return to poaching may stay constant. 

Finally, legalizing trade in ivory may reduce the stigma attached to buying it and thus increase consumer demand which may offset the price falls from increased supply. That increased demand may be met by poachers, especially if buyers’ cannot discriminate between legal ivory and poached ivory, and supply from the legal market is restricted (because there aren’t any more animals to cull, for example). 

I don’t know what the final result would be but it’s not so crystal as thinking poachers would be driven from the market and take up something else instead. A better option might be something like Zimbabwe’s Campfire scheme. This exploits the fact that many potential poachers only kill because the animals have no other value to them, only a cost (habitat, vegetation destroyed etc.). Campfire allows farmers to share in the revenues from legal hunts. This can be substantial and encourages farmers to care for the elephants and generally share in the wider conservation efforts. Apparently, the farmers involved have also taken steps to ward of poachers themselves, thus lowering the costs of direct enforcement.

The main point is that defenders or opponents of free market solutions frequently need to look beyond the simpler first order effects and perhaps even the neoclassical version of events.

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Posted in Environmental economics | 1 Comment

Organic food could be bad for your great great great grandchildren

Organic food can be bad for the environment. One of my first posts was about the expected rail against Tesco’s soaring profits. The relevant part of the post:

Supermarkets fly in strawberries from Africa in December, thus polluting the environment. We should stick to local and seasonal

Firstly, shops sell what we want and if you want summer pud in November, then don’t get so righteous. Secondly, modern supermarket logistics are incredibly efficient and minimise transport costs as far as possible. Yes, we should definitely pay the carbon tax for the vegetables flown in from African but this might amount only to about 1p on a 100g bag of groceries. Far more damaging to the environment are all those trips to farmer’s markets in SUVs.

The Defra Food Miles report of July 2005 is worth a read. Here’s the exec summary. It’s a great example of how our intutions and gut feel give us completely the wrong answer and then, force us into the uncomfortable and unavoidable world of the trade-off. Just one example: is it better for us to buy local, seasonal produce, even if that means upping the accident rate, having a negligible effect on the wider environment, and depriving third world producers of much needed income that in time, will help them contribute to the climate change problem?

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Chavez “bribes” Ken, and the poor ride buses.

London, or rather Ken Livingstone, has struck its own deal with Hugo Chavez for cheap oil. The fuel will be priced below cost and in return for ferrying around poor people in London, Venezuela will get “assistance” with global warming strategies.

As the article points out, what on earth does Venezuela gain? It could sell its oil at market prices, obtain better or more advice on global warming, if that is what it wants, or it could invest the wealth in its own projects.

The answer of course has nothing to do with economics, and everything to do with expropriation of the political system. I listened to a fascinating podcast yesterday in which Bruno Bueno de Mesquita explained how dictators still require a coalition to help keep them in power; funding that coalition requires wealth which means taxes on people are raised, or, as in Venezuela’s case, the natural resources of the country are plundered. Now the colation is usually presumed to be cronies located within the relevant country, but in the era of globalisation there’s no reason why tht shouldn’t be the case. In fact an international dictator support group may be more helpful if funding your coalition requires selling an international resource like oil.

Thus Chavez’ ‘gift’ to the people of London is actually nothing more than a “bribe” that helps keep him in power, and no dfferent in essence to the many bribes presumably doled out to his friends. An even worse analysis is that we are, in effect, receiving aid from a poorer country. Not the thought that makes me strut my Lambeth walk with any pride.

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Who chooses for the chooser?

The Economist blog weighs in with this:

behavioural economics can point to many interesting irregularities in behaviour, but it cannot dictate political beliefs such as the level of government intrusion into the economy. If we put the government in charge of deciding what we should want, who will be in charge of manipulating government preferences?

It’s a common misuinderstanding of behavioural economics, and libertarian paternalism in particular, that it advocates Government intervention as a standard. I think this is wrong. The optimal scenario would be on in which private firms compete amongst each other to offer, for example, a range of default savings plans (as in the Swedish plan), rather than have a no contribution default.

However, the research often shows that private sector firms are often slow to engage in the market, i.e. $20 bills remain on the ground. Where this is the case, and where Government has chosen or is mandated to provide, for example, social security or Medicare then shouldn’t we want the Government to act in what they judge to be our self interest?

Let me be clear here. I would prefer the Government NOT to be in the business of saving at all, but given that the incentives for private firms to provide ‘sensible’ options in line with actual behaviour appear lacking (unless specifically designed as in Sweden) then I think it only makes sense to ensure the Government does the best it can.

I’m not advoating a general policy of Government intervention in our choices. But if market failure does occur in instances where without some assistance we clearly act sub-optimally, then I would rather urge that sole provider (whoever it happens to be) to do the best they can.

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Posted in Behavioural economics, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Ending free banking not a blessing for all

The BBC reports of moves towards ending free banking in the UK, and charging customers for current accounts. Graham Beale, the incoming CEO of Nationwide says,

In a way, I do believe fee-based banking is a fairer proposition

We might grumble about being charged a fee to have an account, but there appears no logical reason to have ‘free’ accounts, so it must be fair, right?

Well, in our current world of no fees, banks’ costs have to be met from somewhere, usually penalty charges, cheque processing, correspondence etc. These charges tend to be well hidden to most customers. These myopic customers either do not foresee the hidden (high) charges, or see them and anticipate that tehy won’t need incur them, but of course they do.

Sophisticated customers do not make this mistake. They are attracted by the free banking but do not incur the hidden charges because of greater self-control, or perhaps for some services, they find adequate substitutes.

In a free-market, you might think there’s an opportunity for a firm to step up and announce that it will offer a ‘fair’ account charge and no, or much lower ‘hidden’ charges. But as gabaix-laibson.pdf point out in, this might not be the case. Sophisticated firms cream it off the myopic customers on the hidden charges, running the main account as a loss-leader. Sophisticated customers thus ‘exploit’ these myopics because they enjoy free/low cost banking and do not incur the hidden charges; sophisticates therefore, would rather not have a ‘fairer’ (=higher) bank account charge, even if it means lower hidden charges. The final piece in the puzzle is that no firm has an incentive to educate myopics, because they only turn into sophisticates who, by definition, gravitate towards firms offering loss-leader bank accounts with (higher) hidden but avoidable extra charges.

Whether you think this move is right or not depends, I guess on whether you think you’re sophisticated or not. A libertarian paternalist argument might be that most of us will be myopic and firms will earn monopoly profits and not seek to educate us, therefore either the penalty charges should be ‘fair’ (i.e. marginal cost pricing). This seems to be the line pursued by the OFT. 

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Why Oliver James really hates capitalism, or “My theory of depression, for it is mine and mine only, by O James (Mr)”

Monty Python had a celebrated sketch in which a self-proclaimed dinosaur expert, Ann Elk, propounded her theory of Brontasuaruses When repeatedly asked by the interviewer for the details of her theory, she finally answers

All brontosauruses are thin at one end, much MUCH
thicker in the middle, and then thin again at the
far end. That is the theory that I have and which
is mine, and what it is too

Oliver James has come out with his own Pythonesque musings on depression (“affluenza”) based on his Elkian observation that inequality is associated with a mental illness characterised by consumption for its own sake and pursuit of transient trappings like fame.

I have discovered that citizens of English-speaking nations are twice as likely to suffer mental illness as ones from mainland western Europe 

Ergo, money can’t buy you happiness. The Python analogy extends further however: James’ combination of anecdote, statistical evidence, political rhetoric and wild association amounts to an episode of delirium unmatched by the British comedy troupe; it is often unclear whether he is arguing against inequality per se (never mind inequality of what) or capitalism. True his endeavour appears scientific; he makes an observation, that mental illness is correlated positively with inequality. From this he draws an inference: that inequality (or selfish capitalism) causes inequality, and finally he tests this with additional research. But in failing to consider alternative explanations and not linking his policy recommendations to the problem, his work fails as science and economics. Moreover, the keen reader will know only too well the real object of James ire, of which more later. In any case, this work has to be seen in the same context as the recent happiness research, and the theory of affluenza perhaps as a realisation of Galbraith’s predictions in The Affluent Society.  James goes much further than these authors however. Continue reading

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Another failed merger

DaimlerChrysler may demerge. Back in the days when I did this kind of research, we often found that 60-70% of mergers destroyed value for the acquiring shareholders. The most typical problems were a failure to manage massive integration issues and, of course, over-paying for the acquisition. Along with over-paying, one can suggest a failure to let go of the acquisition if things aren’t going well, and I’ve personally wondered whether corporate entities do have an equivalent of human loss-aversion – the tendency in stock markets to hold onto losers and sell winners.

As far as managing integration goes, I think a common failure is a bias in the forecast of conjunctive events. That iis events (such as the success of a merger integration) that depend on a number of individual events ocurring. Even if if individual event is likely to ocurr, the probability of failure can be quite high if there are a large number of events. Thus, in mergers, executives do not forsee the immense number of tasks that must be done, or focus only on a few salient issues (such as IT integration, which they might manage) and fail in the rest.

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How does an essay evolve?

Lyn lays bare her thought processes as she writes a psychology essay. Her motivation being to demonstrate to students that even model answers don’t just spring forth from mental gloop

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If you love the free-market, why do you loath nature?

Don Boudreaux writes

I must be explicit that I have long been skeptical of “green.” Unlike “green” folks, I am not especially inspired by nature. Yes, often nature is pretty and soothing to visit. But to get my blood pumping with excitement and awe you must show me a cityscape — Manhattan’s skyline, above all — and not forests or mountains or beaches. My tastes run decidedly in favor of those amenities of civilization that allow me to escape nature.

Don’s piece is actually about ‘greens’ who turn their preference for nature into a moral crusade, but I want probe his apathy at nature in general. Perhaps he’s being deliberately provocative; placing some (disappearing) acres of rain forest between himself and the green movement, to contrast his free market principles with the presumably reddish greens.

I don’t know, but I do find it odd that a lover of the free market finds no inspiration in nature – the epitome of self-organisation and order, from the selfish pursuit of individual needs; yet a beautifully imperfect system, full on inequality and order, temporary disruption and equilibrium. And what of ourselves? Products of that same evolutionary force; a species in which the tendencies to trust, reciprocate and behave atruistically, in the pursuit of our own selfish ends, created our enlarged brains. An organ whose primary intelligent purpose is knowing the minds of others, so we can keep in check our selfish pursuits and the need to cooperate without cheating. An ongoing process that has allowed us, not the other apes, to create and benefit from mutual exchange from trade.

Do you see where I’m going with this? Nature has created our (natural?) economic system; our economic system as we know it is the product of our evolution. Our economic system is as much the result of genes as your eye colour.

And what about cities? Granted I can’t speak knowledgeably of Manhattan, but as a Londoner I empathise with Don’s feelings for New York. Aren’t cities the ultimate example of the ingenuity of man set free to pursuse his dreams and creativity? Aren’t they the ultimate response to Hobbes’ pessimistic philosophy? Aren’t they wonders of engineering and design that surpasse, for all their greatness, even the Pyramids?

I thought about this the other day when an entire electricity sub-station failure wiped out the power in several parts of London and I had to work from a coffee shop, much as entrepreneurs and financiers did in the same city 200 years ago. In that time, I think London, and New York, were perfect examples of the infinite wisdom and creativity of cities. Individuals largely free from restraint built the wealth of an empire. But about the same time, the demands placed upon them turned cities into something else: a planners paradise. Not the old style planning of Wren or Houseman (for Paris) which were inspired by competition, but the politicised planning that emerged, for example, with the County of London and later, the London County Council.

When I walk around London today, I see, with sepia-tinted spectacles, the bustling and free metropolis. but I can’t ignore the politic and strangled regulation that ocassionally threatens. When I need reminding of how individual pursuits lead to an imperfect, but impressive and unbeatable harmony, I find inspiration in nature*. Don Boudreaux, evidently, has a fondness for City Hall.

An important caveat – of course we can’t be as free as nature and of course we need control, but please forgive me a little poetic license; I think my general point still stands.

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Posted in General Economics, Uncategorized | 1 Comment